Pent Up Demand Unleashed for Homes in Ealing

---

Homes with gardens proving popular as buyers return to the market

House on Ascott Avenue went for over £3,000,000 earlier this year

Local estate agents are reporting a brisk level of activity in the Ealing property market since lockdown restrictions were eased.

Buyers have reappeared very quickly as their ability to move home had been curtailed since March.

Donald Collins, Sales Director at goview London said, “We knew we would be facing a lot of pent up demand when the Government informed us to re-open on 13th May and this assertion has proved to be absolutely correct and I am really pleased that we gave clients consistent, well-informed advice.

“Since the re-opening, garden properties have become a lot more popular, and while there is some discussions that people will be leaving London in big numbers, the reality is a lot of people cannot just up and leave without at least a year’s planning. Many also don’t want to, we live in one of the best areas of London with great local schools and high streets. You see people discussing open spaces, parks etc. as a means of quality of life and in Ealing we have an abundance of nice parks.

“Clearly, a lot of people, will be slightly hesitant in the current climate regarding buying property, but if you look at the underlying fundamentals of the market, the way the stock market has bounced back and the fact that interest rates are so low it gives you a clear indication that the market will remain strong and robust.”

Figures recently published for the first quarter of the year, before the health emergency, show that the local property market was performing steadily but with a low volume of sales.

The average sale price for a home in the W5 postcode was £738,092 according to the Land Registry. This was slightly down on the same period last year and a declining proportion of flat sales helped support the average.

West Ealing appears to have fared slightly less well with a 14% decline over the year. However, the low number of transactions makes generalisation difficult and there was the opposite effect on prices to W5 with the proportion of house sales declining compared to flats. If the numbers are considered on a like for like basis, it seems more likely that the price drops were in single digits.

Buyers remained keen on larger family properties and the highest price paid so far this year was £3,325,000 for a detached house on Ascott Avenue. £2,625,000 changed hands for another detached house on Grange Park.

Ealing W5 Post Code Area Property Prices - (January - March 2020)
Area	Detached	Sales	Semi-det	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flat/mais	Sales	Overall average	Total sales
W5 1	790000	1	912500	2	730083	6	445833	3	694417	12
W5 2	0	0	730000	1	975000	1	529292	12	575464	14
W5 3	1719000	5	950000	1	640000	1	485992	6	1007765	13
W5 4	0	0	842500	2	738125	8	400750	4	656643	14
W5 5	0	0	1225000	2	694500	2	512500	2	810667	6
Total	1564167	6	955000	8	738306	18	490109	27	738092	59
Change in Quarter	-11.2%	-25.0%	8.3%	-46.7%	-0.9%	5.9%	-1.1%	-42.6%	1.5%	-32.2%
Change in year	-30.1%	0.0%	-0.4%	-52.9%	-2.3%	20.0%	-10.2%	-53.4%	-2.6%	-38.5%
Change in three years	-5.7%	0.0%	-9.6%	0.0%	-12.0%	-28.0%	-3.8%	-57.1%	5.4%	-42.2%
Change in five years	-32.9%	-33.3%	-4.8%	-11.1%	-11.0%	-35.7%	-1.8%	-57.1%	-5.0%	-45.9%
Change in ten years	-	-	55.2%	-61.9%	56.6%	-30.8%	67.4%	-53.4%	83.8%	-43.8%

Source: Land Registry

Ealing W13 Post Code Area Property Prices - (January - March 2020)
Area	Semi-detached	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flat/ mais	Sales	Overall Ave	Overall Sales
W13 0	0	0	802500	2	387500	4	525833	6
W13 8	850000	1	630000	1	348500	8	426800	10
W13 9	983300	5	735500	17	420000	7	702069	29
Total	961083	6	736925	20	383053	19	617400	45
Change in Quarter	-7.7%	-33.3%	-2.0%	11.1%	0.0%	-5.0%	-8.0%	-8.2%
Change in year	2.9%	-66.7%	-2.2%	-31.0%	-6.7%	-17.4%	-14.0%	-37.5%
Change in three years	-13.3%	-50.0%	-4.7%	-33.3%	-21.8%	-36.7%	-16.1%	-40.0%
Change in five years	24.8%	-14.3%	7.5%	-4.8%	-6.4%	-51.3%	0.5%	-36.6%
Change in ten years	53.4%	-33.3%	82.2%	-41.2%	63.1%	-44.1%	73.7%	-41.6%

Source: Land Registry

 

goview London produced informative videos about the local property market at the start of lockdown to give reassurance to clients faced with a range of conflicting analysis. They looked at over 100,000 transaction in the area over a 20 year period and concluded that the relatively low number of sales seen in recent years are more normal and that volumes were inflated prior to the credit crunch. They conclude that this means that the market is a lot less transient and speculative than it was prior to the financial crisis and, just as commentators who were predicting big falls then were proved wrong, Go View believe the gloom merchants are making the same mistake.

Donald says that if anyone would like any of the media his firm has produced on the local market, you should feel free to email him at dcollins@goviewlondon.co.uk and he will send it across.

A locally based property market analyst said, “The current situation in Ealing and Acton encapsulates the dilemma for the government nationally. They need to get housing starts way above previous levels but the parlous state of the economy means the outlook for prices appears bleak. Combined with that the banks and building societies are building in expectations of falling prices and asking for up to 15% equity when giving out mortgages. They are effectively already pricing in a no deal Brexit and an anaemic economic recovery.

“Despite this, a general collapse in prices can probably be ruled out. The government has lots of weapons in its armoury including unleashing the power of buy-to-let again and low interest rates mean that yields are supported. Developers can’t sell new flats if secondary market prices are falling, so everything will be done to keep prices at pre-Covid-19 levels.

"Any hope that all the tower blocks planned for Ealing and Acton will now be put on ice are probably misplaced. This is the area of the economy that has the greatest potential to deliver a short term boost and the finances of both the council and TfL are very dependent on these schemes going ahead. Not that Ealing needs it, but I would anticipate that the government will be actively encouraging them to crack on and maybe extra powers will be given to accelerate schemes.

"The developers for their part will have a stronger hand and will be arguing for some of the affordability quotas to be reduced. As many of these units were never going to go to people on low incomes anyway, this isn’t necessarily something for social justice warriors to get concerned about.”

According to the Land Registry’s House Price Index, London was the best performing region of the country seeing a 4.7% rise in prices up to the end of March 2020. This brought the average price in the capital to £485,794. The rise for England was of 2.2% bringing the average property value to £248,271.

The Nationwide’s House Price Index showed a similar picture with a 3.7% annual growth rate for prices up until the end of April, the fastest since February 2017.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said, “In the opening months of 2020, before the pandemic struck the UK, the housing market had been steadily gathering momentum. Activity levels and price growth were edging up thanks to continued robust labour market conditions, low borrowing costs and a more stable political backdrop following the general election.

“But housing market activity is now grinding to a halt as a result of the measures implemented to control the spread of the virus, and where the government has recommended not entering into housing transactions during this period.”

He added that while the low level of transaction might mean it is difficult to calculate the index in the short term, “the raft of policies adopted to support the economy, including to protect businesses and jobs, to support peoples’ incomes and keep borrowing costs down, should set the stage for a rebound once the shock passes, and help limit long-term damage to the economy. “

June 18, 2020