Analysis of the ‘most important election in the borough’s history’
The vote in Hammersmith and Fulham on May 22nd is seen by commentators as a key turning point for the borough. A Conservative victory would see the continuation of large scale developments within the borough which are likely to accelerate demographic change plus the promise of faster Council Tax rate decreases. This has led to the 2014 election being described as the most important in the borough's history.
Up until 2006 the Council generally had a Labour majority but some observers believe that a Conservative win would make the borough irreversibly a Tory stronghold. To prevent this Labour need a swing of over 5%
The key battleground wards are towards the centre of the borough with Labour looking likely to hold onto most seats in the Shepherd’s Bush wards and the Conservatives sitting on significant majorities across the Fulham area other than Fulham Reach which is the most marginal ward.
Top Ten Target Seats for Labour
| Seat | Swing Needed |
|---|---|
| Fulham Reach 3 | 2.2% |
| Ravenscourt Park 3 | 2.4% |
| North End 3 | 3.0% |
| Addison 3 | 3.4% |
| Fulham Reach 2 | 3.5% |
| North End 1 | 4.5% |
| Fulham Reach 1 | 5.0% |
| Ravenscourt Park 2 | 5.0% |
| Addison 2 | 5.4% |
| Avonmore and Brook Green 3 | 6.3% |
The number next to the ward is the position in the vote for that ward achieved by the incumbent in 2010.
Labour need to win 9 seats to regain control of the Council and based on this analysis that would require a swing of 5.5%.
Top Ten Target Seats for the Conservatives
| Seat | Swing Needed |
|---|---|
| North End 2 | 1.5% |
| Hammersmith Broadway 3 | 3.3% |
| Askew 3 | 4.8% |
| Hammersmith Broadway 2 | 5.1% |
| Hammersmith Broadway 1 | 5.6% |
| Askew 2 | 5.8% |
| Shepherd's Bush Green 3 | 8.1% |
| Askew 1 | 8.8% |
| Shepherd's Bush Green 2 | 9.9% |
| Shepherd's Bush Green 1 | 11.8% |
The Conservatives could win an extra seat in North End with less than 100 votes switching in their favour and will be looking to win in Hammersmith Broadway if they want to significantly increase their representation
The swing is calculated by first comparing the lowest vote in 2010 of a successful candidate with the highest vote of an unsuccesful candidate and then the second lowest vote of a successful candidate with the corresponding opposition vote. For instance, a Councillor elected third in a ward will be compared to the vote for the fourth candidate if they were from a different party so the third seat in a ward is always likely to need the smallest swing to change hands.
Overall the Conservatives retained control of Hammersmith and Fulham Council last time out in 2010 with a slightly reduced majority.
| Party | 2010 | 2006 | 2002 |
| Conservative | 31 |
33 |
19 |
| Labour | 15 |
13 |
27 |
| Hammersmith and Fulham Council Election Result 2010 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Seats | Gains | Losses | Net gain/ loss |
Seats % | Votes % | Votes | +/− | |
Conservative |
31 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 67% | 44.6% | 94,246 | -5.8% | |
Labour |
15 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 33% | 34.5% | 72,896 | +1.4% | |
Liberal Democrat |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 20.0% | 42,229 | +6.1% | |
Green |
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.7% | 1,500 | +0.2% | |
May 8, 2014