Poll Shows Sadiq Khan with 'Commanding' Lead

Gap over Tory rival Susan Hall widens to 13 points

Conservative candidate Susan Hall (left) and Labour's Sadiq Khan (right)

April 12, 2024

A new poll has shown Sadiq Khan with a “commanding” 13-point lead over his Tory rival Susan Hall, with just three weeks until the London mayoral election.

The survey by Redfield and Wilton Strategies puts the Labour mayor on 43 per cent, with Ms Hall on 30 per cent.

The pollster last reported, in September last year, that Mr Khan had a lead of just one point over Ms Hall – suggesting his relative popularity has risen since the immediate aftermath of his contentious Ulez expansion in August 2023.

The new poll puts the Green Party’s Zoe Garbett in third place on 10 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats’ Rob Blackie on eight per cent and Reform UK’s Howard Cox on seven per cent.

Although Mr Khan’s winning margin of 13 points over Ms Hall is narrower than other polls since the new year – which have given him leads of 18-25 points – a direct comparison should be treated with caution due to differing methodologies used.

Redfield and Wilton said their poll shows Mr Khan holds “a commanding lead” and “appears well on course for re-election to an historic third term”.

When those who say they do not know how they would vote in a mayoral election are included, Mr Khan leads Hall by 11 per cent.

The poll suggests that the mayor is on course to retain the support of 73 per cent of those who gave him their first preference vote in the 2021 election, when the election was run under a supplementary vote system.

Some eight per cent of his 2021 supporters would now vote for Ms Hall and a further eight per cent for either Ms Garbett (four per cent) or Mr Blackie (four per cent).

Ms Hall, meanwhile, retains the support of 67 per cent of those who voted for the previous Conservative candidate – Shaun Bailey – as their first preference in 2021. Some nine per cent of his voters at that election now say they would vote for Mr Khan, and a further 16 per cent for either Mr Blackie (seven per cent), Mr Cox (six per cent), or Ms Garbett (three per cent).

List of Candidates for London Mayor

Animal Welfare Party: Femy Amin
Independent: Count Binface
Liberal Democrats: Rob Blackie
Independent: Natalie Campbell
Reform UK: Howard Cox
Social Democratic Party: Amy Gallagher
Green Party: Zoë Garbett
Independent: Tarun Ghulati
Conservative Party: Susan Hall
Labour Party: Sadiq Khan
Independent: Andreas Michli
London Real Party: Brian Rose
Britain First: Nick Scanlon

Noah Vickers - Local Democracy Reporter