Property Sales Slow in Hammersmith amid Brexit Uncertainty

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But agents hope lower prices and mortgage rates will bring back buyers in autumn

Property sales in Hammersmith appeared to grind to a halt between April and June, with sales figures down by over a half compared with the same period last year.

These sales figures may still be substantially revised, but are unlikely to climb from 55 to the total of 121 reached in the second quarter of 2015.

Houses appeared to suffer most from the slow down with no sales at all of semi-detached homes during the period and the average price of terraced houses slumping by 11.2%.

One factor dragging down this average was that unlike previous quarters, none of the sales achieved over two million pounds, and just three changed hands for over £1.5 million, with a house in Tabor Road selling for the highest £1,750,000.

Flats however showed a price rise of 14.5% from £579,326 in the first three months of the year to £638,487. Prices rose in all four W6 postcode areas, but especially in the riverside area W6 9 where the average jumped above the million mark to £1,238,667 - mainly due to the sale of one single property, a flat in the Fulham Reach development which was sold for £2,300,000.

This meant that overall, the average price was £820,845 - a short term drop of 3.3% from the previous quarter, but up a small 1.5% on the previous year.

This very mixed picture may be explained by uncertainty caused by the general election in May and the referendum in June, but as the figures only extend to one week after the referendum, they do not tell us anything about post-Brexit trends.

Local estate agents however say that sales have remained slow this summer. Mark Lawrinson, Regional Director, Portico London estate agents says: " We are seeing buyers holding off on making any big property decisions due to uncertainty surrounding the decision to leave the EU."

However, he adds: " If you’re buying a home, then holding off could be equally as detrimental as it could be positive. For example, a lot of buyers haven’t managed to get on the property ladder because they were determined to chase the lowest prices post the last financial crisis. Unfortunately while waiting for prices to drop, they did the opposite, and they ended up watching the market rise again to levels unaffordable to them.

"Money is as cheap as it can be to borrow, which makes getting on the ladder that bit easier and moving up it more affordable. Unfortunately nobody can predict the future, so if you’re in a position to buy today then don’t hesitate; remember you’re buying a home first and an investment second."

Chris Kerr, Sales Director of Kerr & Co says that after 25 years' experience, he is convinced that the housing market is well placed to ride out any bump in the road.

He says: " The fundamental drivers to the housing market have not changed and there will be always a requirement for people to move home. In fact, it could well prove that the coming months offer great opportunities with mortgage rates falling further, the weakened pound and a diminished appetite for stocks and shares making the London property market a highly attractive proposition once more.

" As champions of both Shepherd's Bush and Hammersmith we have long highlighted to a wider audience the significant draws these vibrant areas have.  The current investment in the White City Opportunity area totals some £7 billion, our communications networks are some of the best within the Capital, we are a microcosm of Central London providing everything you would expect from a world class city. "

Across the whole of London Prices rose by 12.6% over the twelve months to June bringing the average price up to £472,204. Prices rose marginally during the month of June.

For the UK as a whole there was an annual price increase of 8.7% which takes the average property value to £213,927.

Following a strong increase in sales in March, UK home sales fell by 55.4% in April 2016, recovering slightly in May and June 2016. The swings in volume are believed to be primarily due to Stamp Duty changes. This was mirrored in London where 14,783 sales were recorded during March but this fell to 4,368 in April.

The latest report from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has concluded that housing market activity has softened with sales and interest from new buyers continuing to wane. They say sales and enquiries continue to display a negative trend in London - although expectations point to a more stable picture in the coming months. Stock levels in the capital are at record lows and new instructions have declined markedly. Across London, 42% more surveyors reported a fall in transactions; the fifth month of decline.

The RICS say that this reflects a continuation of a trend that started in March following the implementation of the tax surcharge on investment purchases. Anecdotal reports provided by contributors to their survey suggest both the tax change and the ongoing fall-out from the EU referendum are contributing to the current mood in the market. However, looking a little further out, London has seen a notable turnaround in sentiment for the year ahead, as confidence towards the outlook for transactions climbed to a seven month high.

Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, commented: “The housing market is currently balancing a raft of somewhat mixed economic news alongside the latest policy measures announced by the Bank of England, which have already begun to lower cost of mortgage finance. Against this backdrop, it is not altogether surprising that near term activity measures remain relatively flat. However the rebound in the key twelve month indicators in the July survey suggest that confidence remains more resilient than might have been anticipated.“

Hammersmith Property Prices (April - June 2016)
Area	Semi- detached	Sales	Terrace	Sales	Flat/ mais	Sales	Overall Ave	Overall Sales
W6 0	0	0	1538333	3	593605	19	722432	22
W6 7	0	0	1665000	1	645600	5	815500	6
W6 8	0	0	1116250	4	549091	11	700333	15
W6 9	0	0	1124722	9	1238667	3	1153208	12
Total	0	0	1227500	17	638487	38	820545	55
Last quarter	-	-	-11.2%	-51.4%	14.5%	-51.9%	-3.3%	-53.4%
Last year	-	-	-2.0%	-50.0%	4.0%	-54.8%	1.5%	-54.5%
Last three years	-	-	11.1%	-51.4%	56.8%	-51.3%	20.0%	-53.8%
Last five years	-	-	37.1%	-57.5%	80.5%	-32.1%	30.9%	-45.0%
Last ten years	-	-	96.1%	-73.8%	128.3%	-71.9%	98.7%	-73.0%

 

Source: Land Registry

November 11, 2016