Can Greg Hands Hang On in Chelsea and Fulham?

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Polls disagree on his chances of being re-elected

Candidates clockwise from top left: Blaise Baquiche - Liberal Democrats, Ben Coleman - Labour, Mona Crocker - Green, Sabi Patwary- Workers Party, Greg Hands - Conservative, Anthony Goodwin - Reform. (No picture available of David Poulden - Heritage)

June 24, 2024

Greg Hands has acknowledged he faces a tough challenge to be re-elected for the Conservatives in the Chelsea and Fulham constituency and he believes it could come down to a couple of hundred votes.

He is taking solace from a MRP poll carried out by Survation which he quotes as showing him 1.3% ahead of Labour’s Ben Coleman. He adds that this is within the margin of error so he is saying that essentially the conflict is neck and neck.

Nationally, the same poll forecasts a disastrous result for the Conservatives, so it appears to have picked up on local factors that might be helping them. The analysis was carried out on behalf of Best for Britain is based on 42,269 online and telephone interviews, conducted between the 31 May and the 13 June before the latest scandal over voting about the election date.

However, another polling organisation, Electoral Calculus, is saying that there Is an 88% chance of a Labour victory in Chelsea and Fulham based on a similar turnout to last time. The bookies also see Ben Coleman as the odds-on favourite to win the seat.

Greg Hands has held the seat for the Conservatives since it was formed in 2010 having previously represented part of the area as MP for Hammersmith & Fulham from 2005.

Greg Hands (right) with his supporters in the constituency

The Minister for London and Minister of State for Trade has polled between 22,000 and 25,000 in the last three elections though his vote share dipped below 50% for the first time in 2019 when he fought off a challenge from ‘supermum’ Nicola Horlick representing the Lib Dems.

Before 2019, Labour had finished second in the constituency and this time around, Hammersmith & Fulham’s Deputy Leader, Ben Coleman, is expected to be the main challenger.

Mr Hands must deal with, not only poor national polling for the Conservative Party but also boundary changes which have seen two Labour voting wards, Fulham Reach and West Kensington, transferred into the constituency. The whole of the Kensington and Chelsea ward of Brompton and Hans Town is now included in the new constituency of Kensington and Bayswater.

Mr Hands was quoted in the Evening Standard as saying this January that the 15,000 new voters in the constituency from ‘the bottom of Hammersmith’ makes his challenge harder. He added that due to new boundaries his seat was “going to be right on the front line” of the General Election fight.

Labour has made the seat a priority, sending its ‘Battle Bus’ for to a party rally outside Craven Cottage last Friday (21 June).

Ben Coleman with Labour's Deputy National Campaign Coordinator Ellie Reeves outside Craven Cottage. Picture: Betty Laura Zapata/Labour Party

At the 2010 election the Chelsea and Fulham seat had the sixth highest Conservative vote in the country.

Candidates in July 2024 General Election

Liberal Democrats - Blaise Baquiche
Labour - Ben Coleman
Green - Mona Crocker
Reform UK - Anthony Goodwin
Conservative - Greg Hands
Workers Party - Sabi Patwary
Heritage - David Poulden

General election 2019: Chelsea and Fulham
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
Conservative	Greg Hands	23,345	49.9	–2.7
Liberal Democrats	Nicola Horlick	12,104	25.9	+14.9
Labour	Matt Uberoi	10,872	23.2	–10.0
Animal Welfare	Sam Morland	500	1.0	New
Majority		11,241	24.0	+4.6
Turnout		46,821	69.8	+3.7
Registered electors		67,110
Conservative hold		Swing	–8.8

 

General election 2017: Chelsea and Fulham
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
Conservative	Greg Hands	22,179	52.6	–10.3
Labour	Alan De'Ath	13,991	33.2	+10.1
Liberal Democrats	Louise Rowntree	4,627	11.0	+5.8
Green	Bill Cashmore	807	1.9	–1.8
UKIP	Alasdair Seton-Marsden	524	1.2	–3.9
Majority		8,188	19.4	–20.4
Turnout		42,128	66.1	+2.7
Registered electors		63,728
Conservative hold		Swing	–10.3

The General Election takes place Thursday 4 July 2024.

Important dates

The deadline to submit applications to vote by proxy in the General Election on 4 July (for those who don’t have an existing proxy or postal vote) is 5pm Wednesday 26 June.

You can apply for some types of proxy vote on GOV.UK. Please contact Electoral Services if you require an ongoing proxy due to disability, employment or education as you cannot apply online for these applications.

The deadline for us to receive Voter Authority Certificate applications to vote in the General Election on 4 July is 5pm on Wednesday 26 June.

You can apply for a Voter Authority Certificate online at GOV.UK.

Polling stations

Polling stations will open at 7am and will close at 10pm on polling day.

Voter ID

You will need to show an accepted form of photo ID to vote in a polling station.

Check the list of accepted forms of photo ID (Electoral Commission website).

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