Is Price Adjustment Beginning for Chiswick Property?

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Sales so far this year indicate there has been a double digit fall in values

A grade II listed property on Addison Grove went for £3,880,000

The average price of a Chiswick property has fallen by 12.3% compared with the level seen at the end of 2017 according to the latest data from the Land Registry.

Have been stuck very close to the £1,000,000 mark for an extended period, the level dipped sharply in the first three months of the year with both flat and house prices seeing double digit falls. However, with transaction levels still at historic lows, local agents are saying it is impossible to say with confidence that this represents a decisive market correction. Many of them are hoping for a fall in prices to a 'market clearing' level which will encourage an increase in the number of sales.

Only 81 sales have been reported so far this year in the W4 post code area at an average price of £905,343. Volumes in the local property market have only been lower during the financial crisis of 2008/9.

Andrew Nunn of Andrew Nunn and Associates commented, “we acknowledge 2017 was a particularly difficult year for sales reflecting in the poor completion numbers for the first quarter of 2018 but we have seen greater activity and sales agreed in 2018 which will filter through to the Land Registry data for the second and third quarters of 2018."

Despite the general level of inactivity there has still been strong interest in certain areas of the market with buyers still around for large family houses. Two properties have changed hands for over £3,000,000 including a six-bedroom Grade II listed home on Addison Grove which transacted at £3,880,000.

There is also evidence of some demand pick up at the lower end of the market. Andrew Nunn said, "In particular smaller houses in the £900,000 - £1,300,000 bracket and flats in the £500,000 - £650,000 bracket have been most sought after in the first four months of this year. Furthermore we are starting to see our long term investor buyers returning to the market looking to add to their rental portfolios. This can often be a sign the market is 'on the turn'."

Accurate pricing is still imperative and relatively small amounts can make the difference between selling or not selling suggests Andrew. He adds, "Price differentials are as squeezed as they have been for a very long time and with many low fixed rate mortgage deals it really is a sensible time to try a move up market.”

 

According to the Nationwide House Price Index, property values in London as a whole fell by 1% in March compared with the same month last year. For the UK overall prices are up by 2.1% and the gap between the capital and the rest of the country has been slowly reduced over the last few months.

Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “Looking ahead, much will depend on how broader economic conditions evolve, especially in the labour market,
but also with respect to interest rates. Subdued economic activity and the ongoing squeeze on household budgets is likely to continue to exert a modest drag on housing market activity and house price growth this year."

Home ownership rates have declined across all English regions over the past decade. While the decline has been fairly uniform across regions, the biggest reduction has been in London, where the home ownership rate has fallen from 57% to 47%. The counterpart to this has been robust growth in the private rental sector; for example, 30% of households in London now rent.

The RICs say that their surveyor members report on balance an expectation of no price rises over the next 12 months representing the joint lowest reading since February 2013. Regionally, there continues to be significant variation in the house price indicator. London, exhibits the weakest feedback, with a net balance of -47% of respondents citing further price declines.

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Chiswick Property Prices - (January - March 2018)
Area	Detached	Sales	Semi- Det	Sales	Terraced	Sales	Flats/ Mais	Sales	Overall Ave	Total Sales
W4 1	1397500	2	3880000	1	1042833	6	611300	10	1002368	19
W4 2	0	0	815000	1	1479700	9	601681	8	1052542	18
W4 3	1721000	1	1638333	3	935625	8	551667	12	864208	24
W4 4	0	0	0	0	1675000	2	612833	6	878375	8
W4 5	950000	1	0	0	762500	4	510571	7	631167	12
Total	1366500	4	1922000	5	1153769	29	576685	43	905343	81
Change in Quarter	-26.7%	-55.6%	15.3%	-54.5%	-17.6%	-43.1%	-11.4%	-50.6%	-12.3%	-48.7%
Change in year	-38.5%	-50.0%	-13.4%	-64.3%	-4.3%	-27.5%	1.6%	-29.5%	-15.4%	-34.1%
Change in three years	-17.5%	-20.0%	9.9%	-54.5%	7.1%	-21.6%	2.3%	-54.7%	10.8%	-45.3%
Change in five years	-	-	1.7%	-44.4%	33.8%	-29.3%	43.9%	-41.9%	36.9%	-34.7%
Change in ten years	-	-	67.1%	-68.8%	48.5%	-35.6%	47.9%	-32.8%	44.5%	-35.2%

Roughly speaking the post code sector areas are as follows:

1 - Bedford Park and the north side of the High Road

2 - The south side of the eastern end of the High Rd down to the river at Corney Reach

3 - The Grove Park area and over to Strand on the Green

4 - The west of Chiswick between the A4 and Chiswick High Rd - (a high concentration of flats)

5 - The north west of Chiswick - Acton Green mainly

May 13, 2018